October is National Breast Cancer Awareness Month, which means understanding more about what puts certain groups of people at higher risk of breast cancer.
Overview
- Approximately 1 in 8 women (or around 13%) will be diagnosed with invasive breast cancer during their lifetime.
- In 2026, it's estimated that there will be approximately 320,000 new cases of breast cancer in the United States. That's enough people to fill up Yankee Stadium 7 times!
- In 2026, it's estimated that there will be around 42,000 breast cancer deaths in the United States.
Source: American Cancer Society, Cancer Facts & Figures 2026
Who is most likely to get breast cancer?
- In the US, white women are most likely to develop breast cancer, at 14%.
- Asian and Pacific Islander women follow at 13%.
- Black women have a lifetime risk of 12%, and Hispanic women 11%. Meanwhile, American Indian and Alaska Native women face the lowest risk of developing breast cancer, at 9%.
However, this isn't the whole story. In America, while breast cancer is most likely to occur in white women, white women are not the most likely to die from breast cancer. Black women are most likely to die from breast cancer. Meanwhile, Asian American women are least likely to die of breast cancer. But why does this racial difference exist?
| Group | Lifetime risk | Deaths per 100,000 women |
| White | 14% | 19.1 |
| Black | 12% | 25.9 |
| Asian | 13% | 11.8 |
| Hispanic | 11% | 13.4 |
| American Indian | 9% | 16.9 |
Source: National Cancer Institute, SEER Explorer
Why are white women most likely to get breast cancer?
There are a few major reasons why white women in America are more likely to get breast cancer. One reason is that having children decreases your risk of breast cancer. Due to socioeconomic factors, white women in America are having children later and later, and tend to have fewer children.
In addition, white women are more likely to use menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) to manage menopausal symptoms, such as hot flashes and night sweats. MHT involves replacing the body's declining estrogen levels using patches, pills, or creams. Many breast cancers rely on estrogen to multiply, which means that MHT increases the incidence rate of breast cancer.
Source: Susan G. Komen, Race and Ethnicity
Why are Black women more likely to die from breast cancer?
Black women in the United States face the highest risk of dying from breast cancer, with 25.9 deaths per 100,000 women. This is 40% higher than white women in the United States, despite the lower rate of incidence.
So why the drastic difference in mortality rates between races? One reason is that Black women with sub-Saharan ancestry face the highest rates of triple negative breast cancer. Triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) is an especially dangerous form of breast cancer that tends to spread faster. TNBC is nonresponsive to estrogen, progesterone, and HER2 protein based treatments, hence the name triple negative.
Furthermore, socioeconomic and cultural factors also play a role. Black people experience persistent socioeconomic disparities that increase cancer risk, such as reduced access to quality healthcare in low-income neighborhoods. Poverty results in higher overall rates of obesity, and obesity increases risk for 13 types of cancer, breast cancer included. Black people are also represented less in clinical trials, which means medical solutions are often not catered towards Black people.
This combination of factors makes it especially important for Black women to get diagnosed and treated early.
Source: New England Journal of Medicine
Asian women are the least likely to die from breast cancer, but will it stay that way?
Asian American women report the lowest rates of breast cancer deaths, at 11.8 deaths per 100,000 women, about 40% lower than white women. However, while Asian American breast cancer deaths are low, recent developments may change this.
Between 2012 and 2021, the overall rate of breast cancer rose about 1% a year. Breast cancer rates in Asian American women rose at nearly double that pace, increasing by 2.5% to 2.7% a year. A few hypotheses for the specific causes have emerged, including shifts in lifestyles and diets, such as having children later or eating red meat. However, it is difficult to say with any degree of certainty, as the Asian American population is not a monolith. There are many ethnic groups that are all grouped under "Asian," all with different genetic risks.
Source: Breast Cancer Research Foundation
Why using race to study breast cancer is flawed
While race is a convenient tool because it allows scientists to compare their results against census data, racial data does not always accurately reflect ethnic or genetic background. This results in significant research gaps where little is understood about certain ethnic groups. South Asian women (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan) are reported together with East Asian (China, Korea, Japan) and Southeast Asian women (Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines).
This means significant genetic differences are glossed over in research. There is very little disaggregated data, but recent research is being done to close this gap. For example, South Asian women may be at higher risk in comparison to other Asian ethnic groups.
Are South Asians at higher risk of breast cancer?
When the statistics are disaggregated and broken down into ethnic groups, a different story emerges. Despite the rising rate of breast cancer among Asian American women, East Asian women are still 14% less likely to have advanced stage breast cancer than white women. South Asian women, however, are 27% more likely than white women to have advanced stage breast cancer.
South Asian women also have higher odds of triple negative breast cancer, 11% more likely than white women. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian women are 18% less likely than white women to have TNBC. Aggregated, the data would tell you that TNBC rates are low in Asian women, while glossing over vulnerable populations such as South Asians.
Source: Journal of Clinical Oncology, 2025 ASCO Annual Meeting abstract
Do culture and religion affect breast cancer risk as well?
Aside from ethnicity, there are cultural and religious factors that may put certain groups at greater risk of breast cancer. For example, Muslim women are less likely to go in for early screening due to a number of cultural barriers. Several factors, such as modesty concerns, spousal support, family support, and health education, can also affect Muslim women's breast cancer screening decisions.
For Black and South Asian Muslim women, who are at higher risk of triple negative breast cancer, a late diagnosis can prove fatal. All women, regardless of ethnicity, are recommended to begin mammograms at age 40. With improved technology such as 3D mammograms, accurate, early diagnoses are more accessible than ever.
Source: National Library of Medicine (PMC)
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Early detection saves lives. Request a mammogram appointment online or call (718) 319-1610 today.
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Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered medical advice. Every patient's situation is unique. Always consult with your physician or qualified healthcare provider regarding your specific condition or before making any medical decisions.
